MPS Update: KLKIM out
We are removing Kalekim from our top picks list on the back of an increasingly cautious near-term outlook. We now expect low double-digit revenue contraction in 1Q26E, driven by volume weakness across core markets, with operating profitability set to deteriorate sharply as negative operating leverage compounds the impact of above-inflation fixed cost growth. Our investment theme for the inclusion of this stock into the MPS had rested on Kalekim's strong fundamental profile — consistent free cash flow generation, high earnings quality, and a resilient balance sheet — alongside our expectation that the company would sustain operational growth into 2026, partly underpinned by newly commissioned capacity. The 1Q26 outlook has prompted us to revisit these assumptions, as it signals the year may unfold below our prior expectations. The contraction in core markets appears primarily attributable to harsher winter conditions across southern and south-eastern Türkiye and an adverse confluence of geopolitical, political, and financial headwinds in Iraq. While we continue to view Kalekim's business model favorably, we believe sustained pressure on operating results could weigh on relative performance, keeping the stock as an index underperformer in the near term.
musteri.memnuniyeti@akyatirim.com.tr
+90 212 334 94 94
